Climate change has become a great challenge to our generation and its impact is felt in almost every society in the world. Nigeria as a developing country with a population of about 180 million is likely to be adversely impacted by climate change due to its vulnerability and low coping capability. Evidences have shown that climate change impacts on Nigeria arises from various climate change related causes experienced due to the increase in temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, impact on fresh water resources, extreme weather events, flooding, drought in the north and increased health risk. The study reviews climate change in Nigeria and its impact on the various sectors of the economy. The finding for this paper indicates that many sectors of Nigerian economy appear to be directly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change such as agricultural sector, health, energy, etc. This generally affects the growth of economy. The impacts of climate changed highlighted in this article raise the need for more support in research and education awareness on the impact of climate change in Nigeria and the need to keep the temperature below 1.5 degrees. This paper review attempts to create awareness on the impacts of climate change in Nigeria and presents some policy recommendations for adaptation and mitigation measures to tackle the challenges.
Climate change is an undeniable environmental threat of the 21st century which the world is currently experiencing and seeking measures to adapt and mitigate its impact. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines ‘climate change as a change which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere over comparable time periods’’. Climate change is already beginning to transform life on earth. Around the globe seasons are shifting, temperatures are increasing and sea levels are rising. Climate change affects the whole world though the poorest people who contribute least to the change are the ones who suffer the most.
Concern over the negative impact of climate change has strengthened fears that environmental degradation and demographic pressures will displace millions of people in Africa and create serious social upheaval. Most scientists studying the potential impact of climate change have predicted that Africa is likely to experience higher temperatures, rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns and increased climate variability, all of which could affect much of its population and that is what is presently going on now in Nigeria, the constants floodings, tremors and erosion happening in most river bank and hilly zones in the country.
Climate change has negatively affect Nigerian economy with various observable impacts ranging from significant reduction in agricultural productivity to increase in illness, morbidity and mortality rate. The energy sector has not also be left out because climate change has impacted the hydro power plants which are source of electricity for the country. Many other sectors like the transportation, tourism and manufacturing sectors have all been affected which in all generally affects the entire Nigerian economy and it’s GDP. As per studies conducted by Department for International development (DFID), it concluded that climate change will cost Nigeria between 6 percent and 30 percent of its GDP by 2050 worth between $100billion and $460 billion .
Climate change is having serious and unpredictable impacts on the world. The impacts of climate change are being felt by both developed and developing countries. Many sectors of Nigeria’s economy appear to be directly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These impacts are currently been experienced on agricultural production, health, biodiversity, social, economic, manufacturing and energy sector, etc. let’s take a look at the following:
Impacts on Agriculture in Nigeria-the concern with climate change are heightened given the linkage of the agricultural sector to poverty. It is anticipated that adverse impacts on the agricultural sector will exacerbate the incidence of rural poverty. Climate change has the potential to affect African agriculture in a range of ways leading to an overall reduction of productivity which could result to a loss in GDP of between 2 to 4% in Western Africa. Over 80% of Nigeria’s population depends on rain-fed agriculture and fishing as their primary occupation leading to a high risk of food production system being adversely affected by the variability in timing and amount of rainfall.
Crops occupy nearly 94% of the agricultural sector in Nigeria and some areas are already experiencing a loss in length of growing days by 20%. Growth rates of maize, guinea corn, millet and rice are is reduced by rises in temperature. Warming trends also make the storage of root crops and vegetables more difficult for those without access to refrigerators. Climate change has caused a shift in crop cultivated in northern Nigeria. The preferred crops the farmers cultivated are guinea corn followed by groundnut and maize, but due to increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall amount and direction occasioned by climate change, the farmers as a means of adaptation in 2007 shifted to the production of millet followed by maize and beans.
Another major problem of agriculture in Nigeria due climate change is the reduction of arable lands. While the sea incursion is reducing the arable lands of the coastal plains, the desert encroachment with its associated sand dunes is depriving farmers of their agricultural farmlands and grazing lands. As per studies conducted by Ministry of Environment in Yobe State, it concluded that sand dunes and desert encroachment has covered from 25,000 hectares to more than 30,000 hectares ,with its attendant negative impact on food and livestock production.
During the worst of the drought in the 1970’s and 1980s, close to one million livestock were lost, affecting meat and dairy supply throughout the country. High temperatures have hindered livestock (sheep, goat, cattle, poultry and piggery) production through retarded cycles, reduced meat and milk outputs, as well as their grazing lands. Livestock mortalities (stock losses) increased in poultry, piggery and rodentary production systems to the level of at least 15% per annum. Animal production is affected due to increase in disease and pest (Including PPR, food rot, mange etc.) under the influence of climate change impacts that cut investment profits in livestock production system by more than 20% per annum
Also other effects are flooding of fish ponds especially those sited in wetlands and farmlands nationwide. Increases in the severity of storms have threatened fishing vessels and crew thereby affecting the fish farmers on board. The viability of inland fisheries is threatened by increased salinity and shrinking rivers and lakes.
Impact of Climate Change on Health Sector in Nigeria-Climate change has negatively impacted human health in Nigeria. Climate change affects human health directly or indirectly in many ways. Changes in temperature, precipitation, rising sea levels, increasing frequencies have great implications on human health in the area of injury, illness, morbidity and mortality. Rising sea level is anticipated as a result of climate change Hence flooding may result which is likely to increase the vulnerability of the poor to malaria, typhoid, cholera and pneumonia. Also temperature and rainfall dynamics may increase the distribution of disease vectors such as cholera, malaria and incidence of diarrheal disease have been the crisis in our health sector for the past one year.
Impact of Climate Change to Other Various Sectors-Many other sectors are anticipated to be influenced by climate change that may lead to sea level rise, drought, floods etc. and transport sector, tourism, energy and utility will be among most the worst hit as they are directly affected. Tourism especially the beach based tourism are negatively affected, the beaches and lagoons will be taken over by water due to sea level rise as in the case of Lagos bar beach and Lekki Island which leads to profit loss of owners of businesses around that area.
Nigeria’s transport systems also do not escape the effects of global warming and climate change. For example, higher sea level rise may require costly changes to other ports and coastal roads and railways as the current means of communications along the coast may be covered by the intruding sea water or washed away by erosion. Changes in lake and river levels would also affect inland navigation of local sea transport from one community to another.
Manufacturing sector will also suffer losses from reduced potentials to reduce output requiring agricultural produce as inputs. Sea level rise may lead to flooding which can destroy transportation and other infrastructure as well plants and industrial layouts that can hamper productivity and efficiency in the sector. Oil production wells in the coastal regions will be submerged by sea level rise of 1-3 meters which will cut down the oil production and other commercial activities, that would cost Nigeria $43 billion in GDP over thirty years. Extreme weather events around the coastal region will threaten rise in the Niger delta and affect oil production. Climate change impact has caused the Nigerian Government a huge sum of expenditure. The Federal Government has disbursed Naira3bn from the Ecological fund in the last three years to combat these impacts.
Impact of Climate Change on Energy Generation and Supply in Nigeria-Energy services are necessary inputs for every nation’s development and growth. And also the fuel driving the engine of growth and sustainability development is a nation’s access to reliable and adequate energy. No economy can sufficiently thrive without adequate access to clean reliable and adequate energy. The supply of energy entails the generation, transmission and distribution of energy, notably electricity.
Nigeria has an abundant supply of energy sources as it’s endowed with thermal, hydro, solar, oil resources and yet still described as an energy poor country. Nigeria as a country is highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change because its economy is mainly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, export and/or consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products
Also in keeping the the temperature below 1.5C is the only safe global temperature that we can achieve. Surpassing the 1.5C will bring significant risks to the survival of the coastal regions. We must not break 1.5 and it is the achievable record. We need zero net emission of green gases by mid-century and by doing so will bring in more investments and job opportunities in the short term. The whole world has begun to move in this direction in several countries, for instance, in Nigeria consumption of coal, is falling. Renewable energy is on the increase.
Nigeria is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and must, therefore as a matter of urgency take steps to reduce its vulnerability, build its resilience and build its adaptive capacity. so henceforth In order to deal with the adverse impact of change on the Nigerian economy and society, certain adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be employed so as to take appropriate actions to prevent or minimize the damages they can cause to the developing economy of Nigeria and livelihood of the people. This includes the following but not limited to:
- Adopting improved agricultural systems for both crops and livestock For example, diversify livestock and improve range management; increase access to drought resistant crops and livestock feeds; adopt better soil management practices; and provide early warning/meteorological forecasts and related information.
- Increasing use of climate forecasting to reduce production risk.
- The Federal Government and its agencies should review natural agricultural policies and related programmes so as to encourage and support development initiatives which can introduce newly advanced and proven strategies which will help agricultural production.
- The ministry of lands and housing advise people and pass a policy on building structures and locations on areas where to construct their houses to mitigate loss of property due to flood, erosion or tremor as the case is now in Ogun State –Flooding; Kaduna-Tremor and Anambra-Erosion.
- And finally, harnessing the use of renewable energy as an alternate source to the climate change.
With some of these policies in place, Nigeria will be able to mitigate the impact of Climate Change and safeguard the well being of its citizen.
Reference:
http://www.sciencedomain.org/download/MTQzMDFAQHBm.pdfby NE Ebele
Challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Nigeria: A synthesis from the literature
By: Ruth During
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